Geoffrey Parker (1943) is an internationally renowned military historian. In the Netherlands he made a name for himself mainly because of his books about the Dutch Revolt. His interest is in the logistical-military side. Unlike that of many Dutch historians, his approach is broad and internationally comparative. His latest book will be published shortly, on climate change as the cause of, among other things, the European decline in the 17th century. An interview.
You specialize in military history. How did that come about? “That was a coincidence. I once had a lecture from John Elliott, professor at Cambridge, on Europe in the period 1494-1715. He told fascinatingly about the war of Spain in the Netherlands. After college I followed him up and he told me it was a mystery why Spain had failed to suppress the Dutch Revolt and waged a war for eighty years that they could not win. I then asked if I could become a research assistant with him if I passed my exams. He said yes. He probably thought I wouldn't pass my exams.” Parker can still laugh about it. Because three years after this lecture there was a dissertation:The Army of Flanders and the Spanish Road, 1567-1659 (1968; published in 1972) on why Spain failed to suppress the Dutch Revolt.
Have you found the answer? “Yes, it's all logistics. And political strategy. Spain was fighting at the end of its range. A thousand miles is the limit to exercise your power. In 1570, the Spanish Empire had eighty million subjects and the Republic perhaps a hundred thousand, but a hundred thousand people at the end of its range are much more likely. And the Netherlands benefited from their geography, waterworks, fortresses and so on.
My book is not so much about how the war was fought, but about its logistics, its strategy, about moving and feeding many soldiers. It's very easy to get into a war, it's very hard to get out. Spain experienced this in the 16th century, and America experienced it in the 21st century. You can go to Iraq and think it's over in a year, mission accomplished, but it doesn't work that way. The more you invest in it, the harder it is to get out."
Ultimately, Spain lost the Eighty Years' War, or what historians call the Dutch Revolt today. Parker has been accused from the Netherlands that he used a too Spanish perspective and wrote too pro-Catholic and pro-Spanish.
Are you neutral in your work? “No one is neutral. I wrote my first book during the Vietnam War and I noticed the parallels with Spain in the 16th century. The United States fought a war at the end of its range and failed. That too was a war that they got into but very hard to get out of. I was aware of the parallels, so I was not neutral. As for the Revolt, I don't care if Spain or the Netherlands won, I love both countries. As a Brit, I was not emotionally involved in the outcome.”
As an 'outsider', do you understand the Dutch Revolt better than Dutch or Spanish historians? "I think so. Most Dutch historians do not go to Spain to study Spanish sources, with a few exceptions. The problem is that you know many languages, but refuse to learn Spanish. When you study another country, you miss a lot, such as references to the culture, little things in the language. But you also gain, your perspective is more distant and you ask questions that historians from your own country will never ask. In doing so, you can better look at the bigger picture and pay more attention to the fact that Dutch history took place in a European context, just as Philip II's Spain was part of a larger world."
What are you currently working on? “Recently I have The Definitive Biography of Philip II written (Barcelona 2010). This is only published in Spanish. It is 1400 pages, so no one else wants to read that. But maybe there will be an abbreviated version in Dutch or English:The essential Philip II. I am especially interested in the last ten years of Philip's reign, the 1590s. The biggest problem then was climate change, it was a very drastic period of global cooling. This influenced Philip II's Spain. Everything began to indicate that it would lose its role as a world power. It couldn't possibly keep fighting on so many fronts. But the other European powers were also weakened, so they could not take advantage of Spain's problems. After 1600 the climate improved again. But from the 1640s on, a new, more intense period of global cooling. . emerged We call this the Little Ice Age. This is what my forthcoming book will be about.”
What sources do you use to demonstrate climate change? “We have the natural archive, such as tree rings that show whether it was a good or a bad season. And we have the human archive, such as chronicles or diaries, where people write 'it snowed all day', or 'today, for the first time in my life, the entire Zuiderzee was frozen over'. Or you can look at the many Dutch ice paintings with skating scenes from this period. These two archives coincide. This way you can date climate change per month and sometimes even per hour.”
How did they deal with climate change? “They hardly did anything. The exception to this is Japan. There were the same climate problems as in Europe. But the shogun enacted laws such as that rice should not be used to make sake, but only to be eaten. They built granaries and planned ahead. He also avoided wars. Japan did not go to war, even though opponents were weakened. As a result, there was prosperity in Japan, the population doubled, the amount of cultivated land tripled, the yield quadrupled.”
And meanwhile in Europe? “In the 17th century there were only four years of war in Japan, while Europe had only four years of peace. They just fought through here. The 17th century slowed progress towards industrialization. The economy was thrown back. A society recovers from a war in a few years, but if there is climate change at the same time, it takes many times longer. The combination of global cooling and war led to a population decline. I estimate that the population of Europe fell by a third by then. And it took a long time to recover. Germany, for example, only regained its pre-Thirty Years' War (1618-1648) population level after a century.”
And the climate is an important factor in this? “My book claims that climate change is probably the most important variable. If there is rapid global cooling the harvests will fail and if war is also waged, it will put extra pressure on society.”
Can we learn something from this, about how to deal with our climate change? "Yes! Governments need to be much more active in preparations. I don't know how it is in the Netherlands, but I know that in Ohio, where I live, if the international trading system is down, we still have eight days of reserve.”
And on the ninth day? “Then we die. It is still the case that 100% of the population depends on the harvest. And if people have no food, they starve. No, first they fight and then they starve. I don't think we realize how dangerous this is. Climate change cannot be ignored. Determining how it was caused is much less important than deciding what to do about it. The discussion is still too much about whether climate change exists and how it is caused, or whether human actions are to blame. But we shouldn't talk about that. There are always some idiots excusez le mot who deny it, just as there are still some "scientists" who deny the link between smoking and lung cancer. But I still think that the majority of scholars are right in this case.”
What should we do when your book comes out? “Everyone has to buy it, of course. And I hope policymakers will at least read the conclusion. It's a history book, it's not a sermon. But I think it may play a role. My book is about climate change in the 17th century. It is the last major climate crisis and the first for which we have many resources. I don't think anyone who reads my book thinks:he's just making up, the climate doesn't change. The evidence is obvious. Climate change exists and has a major impact. And it is happening now.”
- Geoffrey Parker, The Global Crisis. Climate, War and Catastrophe in the Seventeenth-Century World (Yale University Press, 2012 and in 2013 in Dutch at Het Spectrum)
Other books by Geoffrey Parker:The Dutch Revolt (Cornell University Press, 1977); The Military Revolution. Military Innovation and the Rise of the West, 1500-1800 (University of Cambridge, 1996); The General Crisis of the Seventeenth Century (with Lesley M. Smith) (Routledge, 1978)