Will Poland be dragged into World War III? Is the world on the brink of nuclear annihilation? Interview with Jacek Bartosiak and Piotr Zychowicz.
Marcin Moneta:From your talks it appears that we live in a time of breakthrough, in which the old geopolitical order is ending and shaping a new one. What is this change about?
Piotr Zychowicz:On the fact that for the last 30 years there was only one superpower in the world. United States. The whole world was playing by the rules set in Washington. This period is called Pax Americana. Now this global order is crumbling before our eyes. America was challenged by China. Russia also wants to dismantle the current unipolar system. This new situation leads to very serious tensions. There are two scenarios. Or else America will come to terms with losing world hegemony and the world will become multipolar. Or there will be a war. Unfortunately, scenario number two is more realistic. Empires rarely come off the stage without the roar of the cannons.
MM:Is the title World War III inevitable? In what perspective can it explode?
Jacek Bartosiak:It is already going on, but it does not have a kinetic dimension yet, ie there is no open shooting. On the other hand, the parties are preparing and competing for the establishment of the rules of international order.
The war will be fought in outer space. Both sides will try to shoot down the enemy's satellites to blind him.
MM:What will this global conflict look like? What means will be used?
IP:All measures necessary to break the will of the opponent will be used. That is, the fight in cyberspace, hybrid and propaganda attacks. If a full-scale war breaks out, the navy, air force and ground forces will also come into action. And finally - and it will be a novelty - the war will be fought in outer space. Both sides will try to shoot down the enemy's satellites to blind him. Due to its technological advancement, World War III will be largely a war of robots. It remains to be hoped that the powers taking part in this struggle will not use the ultimate weapon, i.e. nuclear ballistic missiles.
MM:What are the tasks and challenges for Poland in connection with the likely new conflict?
JB:Building defense capabilities on the modern battlefield, skillfully taking a geopolitical position in shaping a new balance in the region and choosing what to do with the Union and the alliance with the USA.
MM:Gentlemen, in their talks, say a lot about Russia's position in the global game, about the fact that both the West and China will want to win it over to their side. Is a new Yalta possible, and therefore another "handing over" of Central Europe to Russia in exchange for an alliance?
PZ:We are very afraid of that. Russia is in a comfortable situation. The outcome of the US-Chinese struggle may depend on its decisions. If the Moscow-Beijing Axis is established, America's chances of victory will drop drastically. The American plan for a war with China provides for the imposition of a naval blockade on China. And the slow strangulation of the Asian Dragon. The same strategy was successfully applied by the Anglo-Saxons to the Empire of Japan in 1941–1945. This strategy will prove ineffective if the Chinese are able to obtain strategic resources overland from Russia. The Americans know this and will try to do whatever it takes to attract Moscow to them. The analogy with World War II obviously comes to mind. Then Stalin fought on the side of the Anglo-Saxons against Hitler. And as a reward he got Poland and the entire Central and Eastern Europe. May it not happen again.
You can learn more about it in the newest book by Piotr Zychowicz and Jacek Bartosiak, "The Third World War is coming", which has just been released by the Rebis publishing house.
MM:Why is the United States losing its hegemonic position, "global policeman"?
JB:Their global military capabilities are no longer sufficient to impose their political will in key locations in Eurasia, which translates into less US influence in the world. America's deepening structural problems do not inspire optimism as far as domination in the world economy is concerned.
MM:What area of the world will be the site of the global war?
PZ:The Pacific at the beginning. But then the conflict can spread to other parts of the globe. Especially if Russia enters it. Should Putin (or his successor) decide to side with China, the Republic of Poland will become a front country. It is also fatal news for Poland. Because in our territory the great battle between the West and the East may be fought again. I don't think I need to tell the Readers of Historical Curiosities what it might end with. Anyone who knows the story thinks in horror of such a scenario.
MM:Does the new times bring about changes in the social and cultural spheres?
The field of World War III will be the Pacific (in the photo the attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941).
JB:Yes, it always is, there will be a new social contract and a redefinition of what work, production and innovation means and the relationship between productive and financial capitalism.
MM:Could China play the role of a global hegemon - not only economically but also culturally? What would this hegemony of China be?
PZ:No, it's impossible. World War III may end with either America's victory (and maintaining its global supremacy) or the emergence of a multipolar world. There is no question of China replacing the US as a global hegemon.
MM:Is geopolitical and social transformation possible without war? How do you relate to the thesis - circulating on the "conspiracy" internet - that Western elites and major corporations are delighted with the Chinese socio-economic model and will want to implement it in the West while maintaining peace with China?
JB:In the history of the world, a peaceful transformation has never happened. These few less significant examples of such a transformation, when there was no war, accompanied some major war, or did not concern the economic rivalry which is the "mother" of all conflicts.
MM:How do you evaluate the current relations of the American administration with China? There is much talk that this policy is submissive. Is that true?
Americans were lost to greed. It seemed to them that China would forever be a cheap assembly plant, a reservoir of cheap labor.
PZ:The biggest mistakes were made before and they cannot be made up. I mean moving a huge part of the production to China. Americans were lost to greed. It seemed to them that China would forever be a cheap assembly plant, a reservoir of cheap labor. Meanwhile, the Chinese learn quickly and can copy technologies. Their economy is growing at a dizzying pace. Now they have built their own technologies and educated their own specialists. During the presidency of Donald Trump, the Americans decided to counteract this and are ready to do a lot to stop China. Will they succeed - we'll see.
MM:In one of the talks you called the European Union "an open-air museum". Where did such harsh words come from and how should the Union and, more broadly, Europe find itself in the new balance of power?
JB:Whoever travels the world sees that Europe is becoming an old place:old people, demographic collapse, industry and infrastructure collapse, poor innovation and lack of an idea for modernity in the 21st century in the era of US-China rivalry. Europe will decide whether it will stand up to this new stage as a separate subject of the game or become the subject of the game of others, as it has been continuously from 1945 to the present day.
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You can learn more about it in the newest book by Piotr Zychowicz and Jacek Bartosiak, "The Third World War is coming", which has just been released by the Rebis publishing house.