The Russian media is buzzing with theories that it was not pro-Russian rebels who shot down flight MH17 over eastern Ukraine, but that it was a plot by the Ukrainian army together with the American intelligence service CIA. The Russians have no evidence for it. But it is obvious that Western intelligence services play an important role behind the scenes in the conflict in Ukraine.
The work of secret services takes place – the name says it all – in the deepest secrecy. Outsiders never know exactly what goes on in the shadowy world of the intelligence and security services. But it is certainly no secret that Western secret services, in particular the American CIA, are currently closely involved in the escalating situation in Ukraine. In April, consciously or unconsciously, the news leaked that CIA chief John Brennan had been visiting the Ukrainian capital Kiev. Nothing has been made official about what Brennan was doing there, but the signal was clear:behind the scenes, the CIA is actively supporting the new Ukrainian government.
Afghanistan
One of the possible reasons for Brennan's visit, Internet speculation goes on, was to share US intelligence on Russian military positions and movements with Kiev. The Ukrainian secret services have been entwined with the Russian services since the time of the Soviet Union. In fact, until the fall of pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych in February, Russia and Ukraine worked closely together on intelligence and security. For that reason, the US has always been reluctant to share its intelligence via digital channels; they could just end up with the Russians. Brennan may therefore have to hand over the data in person and work with the Ukrainians to find a way to reverse the Russians' penetration into Ukrainian intelligence services.
But why would Washington openly send the top CIA official to Kiev to hand over that data? Couldn't that have been done better behind the scenes? Another explanation for Brennan's open visit is that this was a disguised warning to the Russians:They had better refrain from a military invasion of Ukraine. In the 1980s, CIA-armed fighters in Afghanistan were able to burden the invaded Soviet Red Army for years with an exhausting guerrilla war. That struggle exhausted the Red Army, and with it the Soviet Union as a whole, militarily and financially, and collapsed in the early 1990s. That could also happen to Russia if it considers invading Ukraine, Brennan wanted to say.
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Who, what, where, when, why
We don't know exactly what is going on behind the scenes. But it is also not the case that there is absolutely nothing to say about the work of intelligence services in war situations such as in Ukraine. “As soon as a conflict such as this breaks out in Ukraine, secret services will start to gather intelligence from so-called 'open sources',” says historian Constant Hijzen, who is doing his PhD at Leiden University on research into the history of intelligence and security services. “Think of a kind of journalistic bureau editor, but then as an intelligence officer, who gathers information from all possible sources, nowadays especially on the internet, about who, what, where, when and why. Who is fighting with whom and what are the backgrounds? And of course what the possible consequences are for (American) national interests.”
“In addition, all kinds of technical resources are available. Signal intelligence or imagery intelligence that's called. The Americans in particular have had all kinds of advanced spy satellites orbiting the earth since the Cold War. For example, they can take a photo every half hour and Russian troop movements can be clearly seen on it.
But non lethal assistance (non-lethal aid), as the diplomatic term goes, probably goes beyond sensing and passing on intelligence. “A major contribution of the Americans to Ukraine could be the provision of secure communications equipment,” Hijzen said. “One of the most important conditions of waging a war is that you have control over your own communications, and not be constantly intercepted by the Russians. But that infiltration by the Russians is very real and that also makes the CIA very reluctant to share sensitive information.”
Forcing political decisions
Secret services also likely play a role in influencing political decisions preceding military action. “If you can influence those decisions as an intelligence agency, I think you will,” Hijzen said. “I think the work of the American secret services is not limited to providing some satellite photos. I don't think it will go that far, as the Russian media sometimes claims that the whole Kiev takeover was CIA-driven, but I think there is influence. But it is of course difficult to say anything concrete about that. If you take a historical view, however, you can see that the CIA has also interfered in political affairs in the past. If they can help prevent conflict, or force a US decision favorable to the US, they will.”
“Perhaps in fifty years' time it will turn out that the role of the CIA is much greater than we now suspect and that it has deliberately brought a fascist-nationalist government to power in Kiev, because it stands for the unity of the country. During the Cold War, the CIA has often brought dubious governments to power to safeguard American national interests. But nothing can be said with certainty about that.”