Publishers are predicting the collapse of the European Union more and more loudly. One of the most popular modern futurologists - George Friedman - actually referred it to history, seeing in the present crisis a repeat of the collapse of the Soviet Union. According to Friedman, however, we have no cause for concern. Poland will only benefit from this!
It is known that without knowing the history it is impossible to understand the present. Some, however, go a step further:by analyzing the past, often even several centuries away, they draw conclusions for the future. This is what George Friedman did for the European Union, Russia and the United States in his book "The next decade."
According to the author, the European Union will survive as an institutional shell, but it will gradually be burst by internal conflicts. It will vegetate as a free trade zone - and not much else. Friedman is convinced that, first of all, Germany will strive to go beyond the borders of the EU in its relations and ties closely with Russia. Here he sees an inevitable return to a script that has been reworked many times over the centuries. Closer cooperation with Russia is not a bad idea for Germany, but even sensational for Russia - emphasizes the American futurologist (p. 164).
Will Poland again protect Europe from Russian attempts? Better! It will protect American interests:and against Germany and against Russians.
Citing the example of the partitions of Poland, as well as the Polish-Soviet war of 1920 and the Ribbentrop-Molotov pact, Friedman draws the scenario of a new Russian-German alliance, which will become a potential rival of America on the world stage. And it is in this context that Poland appears in his reasoning:
If Germany and Russia continue to move towards an alliance, the countries between the Baltic Sea and the Black Sea - the so-called Intermarium countries - will become indispensable to US policy. The largest of them and the most strategically located is Poland. (...) Poles found themselves in the European Union, but they are still stuck between Germany and Russia (p. 167).
In the opinion of the author of "The Next Decade" Poland is undoubtedly the key to the new European order : The United States needs it very much because it does not have an alternative strategy of balancing Russia's alliance with Germany (p. 169) .
Therefore, in the coming years, the American president - regardless of who he will be - should do everything possible to drive this wedge between the two Eurasian powers. He should win over Poland through political, economic and military rapprochement, which would obviously have to be associated with multi-billion dollar investments . In addition, there would be the transfer of the newest armed technologies to the Poles and dispatching permanent contingents of the American army to the Vistula River. At the same time: American support should create a favorable environment for the economic development of an allied country by providing it access to American outlets
The vision is undoubtedly picturesque and, in addition, completely modern. A few years ago, Friedman was talking about the Polish empire in 2060. Now he is shifting his plans to the next decade. How much truth can there be in his concepts? Please judge for yourself.
Source:
George Friedman, The Next Decade. Where have we been and where are we going , Wydawnictwo Literackie, Krakow 2012.