What is the Arab Spring?
The Arab Spring describes a series of protests against authoritarian regimes in the Middle East and Africa between 2010 and 2011. The name "Arab Spring" refers to the "Spring of the People" in Europe (Arab Spring). The purpose of the protests was to challenge the fortress of authoritarian regimes in the hope of moving to democracy. The protests were often violent with attacks and retaliation. The Arab Spring began in Tunisia and Egypt, where the overthrow of the original regime inspired other countries to join the Arab Spring. It is important to note that the results of the Arab Spring fell within a wide range of successes and failures. Below is a quick summary and analysis of the events of the Arab Spring (Arab Spring).
Tunisia's Jasmine Revolution
The Tunisian revolution began in December 2010 when Mohamed Bouazizi set himself on fire as a means of protesting against the treatment of local officials (Arab Spring). Local officials threatened to confiscate Bouazizi's goods if he refused to take their bribe (Jasmine Revolution). Bouazizi's act of self-destruction was symbolic of the protest against economic oppression and inequality. His action literally and metaphorically triggered a revolution. After Bouazizi was hospitalized, protests quickly arose and asked for pressure. Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali resigns. The street protests were also an outcry from decades of high unemployment, poverty and political oppression (Jasmine Revolution). The protests did not yield immediate concessions. Ben Ali used military force to strike down protesters. In protest with the police force, the protests continued. Finally, on January 13, Ben Ali made concessions to the opposition by promising not to seek a new term as president. He also promised to stop the use of violence, reduce food prices and loosen media censorship (Jasmine Revolution). Ben Ali's concessions, however, were not sufficient to satisfy the protesters; they demanded the immediate removal of Ben Ali as president. On January 14, a state of emergency was declared in Tunisia, which immediately dissolved the government and forced Ben Ali to step down as president (Jasmine Revolution).
The Aftermath of the Jasmine Revolution
Although Mohammed Ghannouchi took power, he was replaced by an interim president the next day named Fouad Mebazaa. Fouad Mebazaa, in fear of the protesters, formed a government with opposition figures in the cabinet. However, the new government did not satisfy the protesters. The next day, new protests resumed as opposition leaders in the cabinet withdrew as a gesture demanding complete reform. Finally, meanwhile, a number of new reforms were announced, which included the construction of a new constitution (Jasmine Revolution).
In 2014, Tunisia became the first country in the Arab Spring Protest to undergo a peaceful transfer of power. The people elected Beji Caid Essebi as president who largely maintained stability after the protests against the Arab Spring (BBC 2019).
The Egyptian Revolution
In Egypt, the revolution started with a group of young people who were inspired by the success in Tunisia. The protesters called for Mubarak to be removed from office. Like the events of the Jasmine Revolution, protesters were met with violent attacks by the police. Eventually, Mubarak resigned, resulting in the 2012 election (Egyptian uprising in 2011). This seemingly successful resignation proved to be more problematic. The 2012 election included two parties:the Muslim Brotherhood and the Egyptian military. The Muslim Brotherhood won the election, but neglected the nuances of governance. In the end, the Muslim Brotherhood served only its original supporters and alienated the rest of Egypt. The military exploited the power vacuum and undermined the government. The military rule over Egypt meant that it sank even deeper into instability and violence (Bowen). When the armed forces consolidated their power, Field Marshal Abdul Fattah-al Sisi became the new president (Bowen). After learning from the previous dictator, Sisi threw tens of thousands of Egyptians into prison, which was his political opposition. His regime has never been challenged since Sisi was backed by Saudi Arabia, the UAE and even the West (Browen). According to Amnesty International, Egypt's domestic human rights situation has deteriorated as unfair trials and torture of prisoners take place under the new regime.
Yemen Revolution
The Yemeni revolution followed Tunisia and Egypt. Similarly, members of the opposition and new pro-democracy members joined forces to protest against President Ali Abd Allah Salih. The Yemeni people were dissatisfied with the prolonged economic stagnation and the terrible society (Yemen Uprising 2011-12). Unlike the other two protests, the Yemeni revolution was peaceful, as President Salih admitted in his economic policy, calling for a reduction in taxes and wage increases. He also agreed to resign at the next election, so that other candidates can stand for election. However, his concessions did not satisfy the protesters who pointed to other times when President Salih made similar promises but failed to fulfill them (Yemen Uprising 2011-12). Clashes between protesters and police later ensued, resulting in several casualties. President Salih began to lose support as the protests became more and more violent (Yemen Uprising 2011-12). The turning point for the revolution came when the military agreed with anti-democracy protesters, which significantly weakened President Salih's hardline power.
Finally, an internationally mediated agreement was signed stating that President Salih would give his presidency to his Vice President Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi. Hadi, however, failed to govern effectively, leading to further instability and economic downfall. Hadi's government then faced a similar fate where protesters and riots continued once again.
The already dire situation worsened as jihadist attacks from the south attacked Yemen. In the other direction, Iran took control of the country's northern border. Hadi in this situation decided to flee the country and leave Yemen in a state of civil war (Yemen:10 years after the Arab Spring sprouts new hopes).
The result of the revolution in Yemen
Due to poor organization and lack of future planning, it can be concluded that Yemen turned out to be in a worse state after the revolution than before it started. The very opposite outcome calls into question the very nature of political protests. The analysis at the end of the article will present some arguments that address the key factors that can determine the outcome of political protests.
Bahrain Revolution
The protests in Bahrain are one of the lesser-known revolutions of the Arab Spring, but they still have significant regional significance. On February 20, 2011, mass protests took place in which protesters demanded an elected parliament and a new constitution from the ruling Al Khalifa family (Bahrain:The Revolution That Was Not). After violent attacks by the government, the protesters retaliated by demanding that the ruling family withdraw immediately. However, the turning point of the revolution occurred when Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and the Gulf Cooperation Council jointly sent troops to militarily support the regime (Bahrain:The Revolution That Was Not). The revolution led to poorer outcomes and human rights conditions. Members of the opposition and protesters were jailed for crimes against the government. Investigations have also found evidence of torture by tightening up on opposition groups (Arab Spring).
The aftermath of the Bahraini Revolution
According to Human Rights Watch, the ruling Khalifa family "demonstrated a zero-tolerance policy for any free and independent political thought, and they have imprisoned, exiled or intimidated anyone who criticizes the government" (Human Rights Watch). Most notably, Nabeel Rajab was jailed for "peaceful criticism" of Bahrain's neglect of human rights. It is clear that the revolution in Bahrain was a failure as it strengthened the ruling party. International stakeholders are also involved in supporting the ruling family, which led to poorer human rights outcomes.
Social policy anthropology:What determined successes and failures?
The relative success and failure of the various revolutions of the Arab Spring are still hotly debated by experts. Given the similar political and socio-economic contexts, countries proved very different in the levels of success. The best result is probably represented in the Tunisia model where an authoritarian government was replaced by a representative democracy. A less successful example includes Egypt where one dictator was replaced by another dictator with similar political grip. Other countries such as Yemen went down in a civil war since the protests.
Although various factors were at play that ultimately determined the outcome of the protests; There are two important advantages Tunisia had over the other countries:strong civilian infrastructure and media influence.
Social media in the modern age of political protest
Although Tunisia's mass media and traditional media sources were censored by Ben Ali, young people managed to overcome this barrier through the use of social media. Facebook played a key role in bringing people together, organizing protests and recruiting more supporters. According to a research article published in the Journal of Social Science Studies, Muller and Hubner shared the functions of Facebook in the form of five dimensions:demonstration function, acceleration function, extension function, anonymity function, binding function (Muller et Hubner 18).
The first reason Bouazizi's self-extinction sparked public interest was that visual documentation was taken and spread via Facebook. It is important to note that Bouazizi was not the first or only person to present himself as a symbolic sign of protest; the difference between Bouazizi and all his predecessors is that his actions and later photos of him in the hospital went viral on Facebook. According to statistics, in the first quarter of 2011, Facebook had an average of 2356520 members, which means a penetration of 22.49% (Muller et Hubner 23). This statistic serves as a stark contrast to the protest in Egypt where only 7.66% of the population had access to Facebook (Muller et Hubner 24).
The original interest was not enough to overthrow an entire regime. Facebook's role was strengthened later in the demonstration function by connecting Tunisians across the country to a common cause. After Mohamed Bouazizi's cousin posted a video showing the first public demonstration, people felt empowered to join the cause; in addition, Tunisians could gain the attention of Tunisians abroad who brought the matter to an international stage (Muller et Hubner 24).
In the face of violent attacks, Facebook served its expanding function by encouraging more Tunisians to join the platform. According to official records, 1.8 million Tunisians were registered Facebook users, a week later 1.97 million users had registered (Daniel 2011).
The Importance of Civil Society
Another reason why the Tunisian revolution proved to be more successful than the others is its civil society. Tunisian society, despite living under an authoritarian regime, was "really well educated middle class, the economy is liberalized, a long history of women and equality" (Muller et Hubner 22). In comparison, the revolution in Egypt seemed unplanned and disorganized. According to the BBC, the protests had no real leaders, and people often disagreed about their roles after the revolution (Bowen). This gave the military a perfect opportunity to take advantage of the chaos.
The truth about democratic transitions
Reversing an entire political regime is far more nuanced than changing leaders. It's about reforming the whole institution that gave rise to the leader in the first place.
Democratic transition is not about overthrowing a leader in the hope of replacing them with someone else. It is about reforming the vast network of institutions under the person. According to an analysis by Amanda Taub from Vox, the most important aspect of political reform is to change an entire institution that gave rise to the leader instead of just replacing one person with another.
In Egypt, Hosni Mubarak prepared for a revolution long before it even happened by removing his political opponents, stacking the cabinet with his loyalists and winning the judges' favor (Taub 2016). When Mubarak lost power, the entire institution failed to stand alone, giving the military the perfect opportunity to take over.
In Bahrain, even the leader could not be removed due to the West's unique interest in the bay and Saudi Arabia's outrage at Shiite protests. This ultimately made the democratic transition difficult as the ruling family received support from those with private interests.
Lesson for future generations
When we look at the socio-economic and political anthropology of revolutions, we can say that the key lesson demonstrated through the Arab Spring is the importance of planned political protests. Individuals must have foresight in the strategy towards an entire institution instead of just one person. Protesters must also take into account the private interests of international stakeholders and ensure that they do not interfere. Political protests are far more dangerous and expensive; in the worst case, the failure to create total change will come at a daring price.
The importance of democratic values
The almost simultaneous uprising in several Arab countries in a short time indicates a common desire for democratic values. Regardless of the political situation in the country, everyone shows a desire to live in a society where they are given freedom, equality, economic opportunities and basic human rights. In many countries such as Yemen and Bahrain, individual citizens were willing to give up their existing materialistic assets and risk their livelihoods for a potentially more democratic society. Although the majority of countries remain authoritarian after the uprising, it is reasonable to assume that the struggle for political freedom will continue.