Why might historians say the Louisiana purchase was possibly only because of good luck?

The Louisiana Purchase was a pivotal moment in American history, doubling the size of the United States and securing vital access to the Gulf of Mexico and the vast Mississippi River basin. While the acquisition was a stroke of diplomatic brilliance, some historians argue that the United States may have been in a vulnerable position and its successful negotiation was, at least in part, due to a mixture of good fortune and favorable geopolitical circumstances. Here's why the Louisiana Purchase might be considered fortuitous:

Napoleon's Dilemma: The French leader, Napoleon Bonaparte, was facing several pressing challenges in Europe, including the ongoing war against Britain. The enormous Louisiana territory, which France had acquired from Spain in a secret deal, was seen as a financial burden and a potential liability in case of renewed conflict.

Haitian Revolution and Financial Constraints: The successful slave revolt in Haiti had a profound impact on French control of its Caribbean colonies, causing immense financial losses. This event, coupled with Napoleon's military engagements in Europe, drained French resources and made holding on to the distant and under-developed Louisiana Territory less tenable.

Timing of the Offer: Thomas Jefferson, the U.S. President at the time, was initially interested in purchasing the city of New Orleans and access to the Mississippi River, but the unexpected offer from France to sell the entire territory for $15 million presented a bargain that was simply too good to pass up.

Lack of Opposition from Other European Powers: The diplomatic landscape of Europe favored the United States. Britain, at odds with France, tacitly supported the sale, while other potential rivals like Spain and Russia were largely disinterested in acquiring Louisiana. This lack of opposition strengthened the U.S. position in the negotiations.

Influence of Robert Livingston: The American ambassador to France, Robert Livingston, played a crucial role in the intricate negotiations. His diplomatic skill and personal connections with French officials allowed him to exploit the opportunities presented by Napoleon's difficulties.

Timing in American Politics: The timing of the Louisiana Purchase coincided with a period of relative political stability in the United States, with limited opposition from within Jefferson's own party and a generally supportive public.

While the sagacity and foresight of Jefferson and his administration can't be discounted, the success of the Louisiana Purchase aligns closely with several fortuitous circumstances. It involved a combination of France's financial troubles, Napoleon's strategic priorities, the U.S. acquisition of a desirable territory at a bargain price, and the absence of significant obstacles. Thus, the serendipitous elements of the purchase have led some historians to view it as a stroke of good fortune that transformed the United States into a continental power.